Poland's parliamentary elections scheduled for October 15 have captured the attention of the international community, with implications that extend far beyond its borders. The outcome of these elections could solidify the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party's grip on power or usher in a new era in Polish politics. From Kyiv to Washington, via Berlin and Brussels, the world will be closely monitoring these elections and their potential ramifications.
Since their victory in the 2015 elections, PiS has embarked on a mission to tighten its control over Poland's institutions, including the public broadcaster and the judicial system. Their subsequent re-election in 2019 further empowered the party, enabling it to strengthen its hold on the country. Led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski, who co-founded PiS with his late twin brother Lech Kaczynski in 2001, the party combines social conservatism with a statist approach to the economy and welfare policies, including generous benefits for families and retirees. This blend of policies has ignited polarizing debates on issues such as abortion, LGBTQ+ rights, and economic direction.
Despite maintaining a pro-Western foreign policy stance, PiS's relations with key allies, particularly Germany, have soured due to its confrontational tone. Disputes over matters like reparations for World War II damages and recent tensions with Ukraine have strained Poland's image as a staunch supporter of Kyiv, particularly after Russia's invasion in February 2022.
As Poles prepare to cast their votes, a third term for PiS is far from guaranteed. The election once again revolves around the long-standing rivalry between PiS and the centrist Civic Platform (PO) party, epitomized by the competition between their leaders, Kaczynski and former Prime Minister Donald Tusk. This rivalry has dominated Polish politics since the mid-2000s. With Kaczynski, now 74, leading PiS' campaign and managing its alliance with the Euroskeptical Sovereign Poland party, and Tusk, 66, staging a comeback as the centrist opposition leader, the stage is set for a fierce political battle.
Despite several attempts, no other party has succeeded in breaking the duopoly between PiS and PO. The social-democratic Left remains weak, while the agrarian Polish People's Party has formed an electoral alliance called Third Way with centrist newcomer Poland 2050. However, they may struggle to reach the 8 percent electoral threshold for alliances. On the right, the far-right Confederation alliance has sought to capitalize on Poland's economic challenges, focusing on its libertarian economic agenda.
Recent weeks have witnessed the emergence of two critical issues in the election campaign—migration and Ukraine. These topics have overshadowed concerns such as the economic situation and Russia's threat. PiS has portrayed itself as tough on migration, but recent reports of Polish consular officials allegedly accepting bribes to facilitate migrants' entry have complicated their image. The opposition has seized on this "visa affair," accusing PiS of hypocrisy. The government has responded by ramping up its anti-migrant rhetoric.
The dispute with Kyiv has also taken centre stage. While PiS has been a vocal supporter of Ukraine, relations soured when Poland extended a temporary EU ban on grain imports from Ukraine. This move was perceived as an effort to appeal to rural voters. In a speech at the United Nations, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy criticized Poland's actions as aiding Moscow, leading to a public disagreement with Polish leaders.
With the elections approaching, polls indicate that PiS is in the lead but may not secure an independent majority in parliament. If no single party commands a majority, coalition negotiations will be pivotal. The far-right Confederation appears to be a natural ally for PiS, even though its leaders have ruled out such a partnership. However, a potential PiS-Confederation bloc would still fall one seat short of a parliamentary majority, setting the stage for complex coalition talks.
The outcome of these elections will hinge on which parties enter parliament and subsequent government formation negotiations. If no government can be formed, Poland may face repeat elections in early 2024. These elections carry significant domestic and international implications, and the prospect of another four years of PiS rule remains uncertain. Poland's future, both at home and abroad, hangs in the balance.
Annabelle Chapman is a Europe-based journalist with a doctorate in postwar Poland from the University of Oxford. Her work has been featured in prominent publications such as The Economist, The Washington Post, The New York Times, Politico Europe, and Monocle.
