Photo by Max Kukurudziak on Unsplash
As Russia's invasion of Ukraine unfolded in February 2022, several former Soviet republics sought closer ties with the European Union (EU), including Georgia. This small Caucasian nation had already faced a Russian military intervention in 2008, resulting in Moscow's control of 20 percent of Georgian territory. However, recent developments have raised questions about Georgia's true intentions regarding EU membership and whether it is hedging its bets between the EU and Russia.
Georgian Public's Desire for EU Membership:
A significant majority of the Georgian population, as evident from polls, strongly supports EU membership. An impressive 89 percent of Georgians expressed their desire to join the EU, emphasizing the importance of this aspiration to the Georgian people.
Ambiguity in Government's Stance:
Despite official efforts to fulfill EU demands, there is a growing sense that the ruling Georgia Dream party is not entirely committed to Georgia's EU membership. Observers both inside and outside of Georgia have raised concerns that the government might be playing a strategic game, attempting to maintain ties with both Russia and the West.
External Criticism:
Evelyn Farkas, a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense, has openly criticized Georgia Dream for aligning with Russia. She questioned the future of Georgia under this government, raising concerns about the country's trajectory.
Challenges to President Zurabishvili:
President Salome Zurabishvili, a strong advocate for Georgia's pro-Western orientation and a critic of Russia, has faced challenges from the government. The government's move to impeach her over her European tour promoting EU accession raised eyebrows, with authorities citing the need for government permission.
Inconsistencies in Georgia Dream's Approach:
Georgia Dream's actions sometimes align more with authoritarian rulers than with democratic values. For example, the government has restricted NGOs, leading to widespread protests, and renewed airlinks with Russia despite EU criticism.
Prime Minister's Stance:
Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili rarely mentions the Ukraine conflict and responds to calls for stronger support by accusing critics of being pro-war. The government's position on the conflict is framed as supporting "peace," which some interpret as a refusal to criticize Putin.
Trends Toward Illiberalism:
Georgia Dream has shown signs of moving in an illiberal direction, undermining judicial independence, curtailing freedoms, and intimidating opposition parties and journalists. This shift is raising concerns about the government's commitment to democratic values.
Bidzina Ivanishvili's Influence:
Speculation about Georgia Dream's true intentions often revolves around its founder, Bidzina Ivanishvili, the country's wealthiest man. Accusations of controlling the ruling party and attempting to buy off the opposition persist, leading some to speculate about a potential deal with Putin.
Ambiguity or Diversification?
There are differing theories about Georgia Dream's strategy, with some suggesting it aims for a diversified international portfolio. Others propose a path similar to Hungary's Viktor Orban, characterized by illiberal democracy and conservative values.
Conclusion:
Georgia's intentions regarding its relations with the EU and Russia remain unclear, but it is apparent that the government's stance does not fully align with the overwhelming desire of Georgians to join the EU and embrace democratic values. The complex balancing act between these regional powers underscores the challenges Georgia faces in charting its future course.
