Tensions between Algeria and Morocco, two historical rivals in North Africa, have reached critical levels, posing a significant threat to regional stability. Recent events, including the tragic killing of tourists by Algerian coast guards, shed light on the potential for unintended escalation between the neighboring nations. Their diplomatic ties have been severed since August 2021, and efforts to reconcile have been hindered by a complex web of historical disputes, geopolitical considerations, and differing foreign policy approaches.
The Incident and Escalation Risk
The unfortunate incident involving tourists who strayed into Algerian waters highlights the potential for accidental escalation between Algeria and Morocco. The border closure since 1994 and the diplomatic breakdown have created an environment where even minor incidents can quickly escalate due to heightened sensitivities. The killing of tourists underscores the need for diplomatic efforts to prevent such situations from spiralling out of control.
Historical Roots of Dispute
The tension between Algeria and Morocco has deep historical roots, with one of the central obstacles being the long-standing dispute over Western Sahara. This conflict dates back to 1975 when Algeria supported the Polisario Front's bid for independence from Morocco, leading to a prolonged conflict. Algeria's continued backing of the Polisario Front, including hosting Sahrawi refugees, has strained relations between the two countries.
Divergent Foreign Policy Approaches
Algeria's foreign policy, rooted in anti-colonial history, contrasts sharply with Morocco's realist approach. Algeria's candidacy to join BRICS and efforts to reduce reliance on the dollar challenge Western hegemony. In contrast, Morocco has focused on strengthening ties with Western allies, participating in the Abraham Accords, and maintaining pragmatic partnerships to bolster its economic prospects.
Diplomatic Strain and Regional Security Concerns
The exchange of hostile rhetoric and disinformation campaigns in both countries has further escalated tensions and eroded trust. The resulting increase in defence budgets and military expenditures raises concerns about a regional arms race, hampering economic growth and investment opportunities in North Africa. The fear of military escalation threatens to destabilize the region.
Obstacles to Reconciliation
While calls for dialogue persist, the prospect of genuine conversation between Algeria and Morocco remains elusive. The leadership of both nations hold conflicting views and priorities, using each other as political scapegoats to maintain domestic control. Without meaningful dialogue addressing North African security challenges, the risk of a military conflict looms large.
The escalating tensions between Algeria and Morocco pose a significant threat to regional stability in North Africa. Historical disputes, geopolitical factors, and divergent foreign policy approaches have contributed to the breakdown in relations and hindered efforts for reconciliation. The recent tragic incident involving tourists is a stark reminder of the potential for unintended escalation. To avoid further destabilization, diplomatic efforts must be renewed, and a comprehensive dialogue addressing security concerns in the region must be pursued. Failure to do so could have dire consequences for the entire North African region.
