Photo by Charbel Karam on Unsplash
Lebanon's economic crisis, which began in 2019, is now threatening the stability of its military. The country's armed forces, comprising approximately 70,000 to 80,000 personnel, are facing significant challenges due to the ongoing financial turmoil. As the economy crumbles and state salaries become worthless, soldiers and security forces are grappling with reduced incomes, pushing many into poverty. The dire situation has led to an increase in desertions, with soldiers ceasing to report for duty or taking advantage of foreign trips to avoid returning.
Exact figures on desertions are difficult to ascertain, but reports suggest that thousands of soldiers have stopped showing up for military service since the crisis began. The Lebanese military has not provided any official comment on the extent of desertions or the overall state of the armed forces.
The role of the armed forces in Lebanon is crucial, especially in a country plagued by a sectarian political system and a history of internal conflicts. The military serves as a symbol of stability and trust for the Lebanese people during these challenging times. However, the financial strain and economic insecurity have started to take their toll. Soldiers now face the added burden of supporting their families with significantly reduced incomes, impacting their morale and effectiveness.
To prevent further desertions, the military has implemented a measure allowing soldiers to take on additional jobs when off duty to supplement their incomes. While this step may alleviate the problem to some extent, a long-term solution is needed to address the underlying economic crisis. Continued desertions could lead to a reduction in the military's operational capabilities, jeopardizing critical missions such as border control and internal security. Moreover, it could strengthen the influence of party-affiliated militias, particularly Hezbollah, which already operates as a parallel state within Lebanon.
Gen. Joseph Aoun, chief of the Lebanese armed forces, has warned that the collapse of the military would have severe repercussions, potentially leading to a disorder that could spill beyond Lebanon's borders. The country has already witnessed armed clashes between different sectarian groups, highlighting the importance of a capable and neutral military to mediate such conflicts.
Meanwhile, political paralysis and infighting among Lebanon's politicians have hindered any significant progress in addressing the crisis. The failure to elect a president and the resistance to necessary reforms have further exacerbated the situation.
International support has been crucial in preventing the complete disintegration of the military. Countries like the United States, Qatar, France, and Italy have provided financial aid, supplies, and military equipment to bolster the Lebanese armed forces. However, the financial woes of the military can only be resolved when Lebanon as a whole emerges from the crisis. The recovery requires comprehensive reforms and effective management of the country's finances, which the entrenched political elite have yet to offer.
As Lebanon continues its downward trajectory, the weakened military remains a crucial stabilizing force in the country. Soldiers like Elias, who have become deserters, live in constant fear of arrest and face restricted opportunities due to their military status. The situation reflects the government's leniency or inability to address the mounting crisis.
Lebanon's military is at a critical juncture, and the country's future hinges on finding a solution to its economic crisis. Restoring the army's financial stability is essential for maintaining security and preventing further deterioration. However, achieving this goal necessitates comprehensive reforms, international support, and the political will to steer Lebanon towards a path of stability and prosperity.