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China's potential role as a peacemaker in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine is doubted by Western officials and experts, who highlight Beijing's cautious approach to diplomacy and its reluctance to alienate Russia. Despite China offering a peace proposal and planning to send an envoy to the region, there are indications that it is not ready to fully engage as a mediator due to the associated risks. Chinese President Xi Jinping did not communicate with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy until well after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and China continues to echo Moscow's talking points regarding the conflict. Western diplomats and former U.S. officials express scepticism about China's ability to play a constructive role.
While the Biden administration is open to the possibility of China contributing to ending the war, expectations remain low. Secretary of State Antony Blinken welcomed any positive role from China but emphasized the need for China to acknowledge the victim-aggressor dynamic in the conflict. China's stance on the Ukraine conflict, according to the Chinese Embassy in Washington, is consistent with promoting peace talks and a political resolution.
China's cautious approach to diplomacy and its aversion to risk-taking are cited as reasons why it is unlikely to actively engage in peace negotiations. Former U.S. officials highlight China's reluctance to put its reputation on the line or exert pressure on important partners like Russia. Beijing's track record in mediating the North Korea nuclear talks has been deemed ineffective, with China more focused on maintaining influence and stability rather than pursuing nonproliferation goals. Experts question China's interests in Ukraine and the leverage it would be willing to exert on Russia to end the conflict.
While some Western officials believe China could encourage Russia to participate in cease-fire talks, it is unclear what specific role China could play or the benefits it would derive from doing so. Currently, both Russia and Ukraine appear unwilling to engage in peace negotiations as they believe they can gain advantages on the battlefield. Ukraine's government expresses readiness to cooperate with anyone willing to help but emphasizes the focus should be on finding ways to get Russia out of Ukraine rather than relying on brokers.
In summary, doubts persist regarding China's ability and willingness to act as a peacemaker in the Ukraine conflict. Western officials and experts point to China's cautious diplomacy, its alignment with Russia's narrative, and its limited history of effective mediation as reasons for scepticism.
